Wednesday, 26 December 2012

Accelerator effects about to kick in?


The semi-technical sector of the Economics industry (the press and interest groups in the main) are very fond of quoting statistics on ratio's to predict a change in the economy.

For example in the 1990's the ratio of average earnings to house prices was often quoted as being at a historic high. This was used, usually by the Daily Mail/Express to predict an imminent collapse of house prices. The fact this didn't happen explains the dangers of such statistics. (In this case the change in the workings of the financial markets and low interest rates allowed a much higher ratio of house prices to earnings so the comparison was not valid.)

Now there is a great deal of interest in the age of consumer durables in the USA (refrigerators, cars etc). The average age of these items has risen during the recession as households put of replacing them as money was tight and confidence low. A similar change must have happened in Europe as the failure of Comet would support.

So many of these household items must be wearing out,  reason many, and that means they must be replaced soon. This will give a much needed boost to the economy.

This may be true. But there are several reasons to be wary. Firstly modern appliances and cars last a lot longer. There are cars sold with seven year warranties, something that would be inconceivable in the 1980's (It was said British Leyland cars were guaranteed for a year - that is guaranteed to break down in a year).

Secondly if there was a rise in demand for these products they most will be made overseas. While retailers may see better business the rise in employment may not be that great and we will have to wait for the recovery of those trading partners.

This cycle of obsolescence is part of the explanation of the business cycle provided by the multiplier-accelerator theory. While intended to be applied to capital goods the same cyclical pattern may be relevant today. I guess we shall see.


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