Tuesday, 15 May 2012

EU 'not in recession'


'Lies, damn lies and statistics' as Disraeli put it can be illustrated by the way Eurostat has claimed that the Eurozone is no longer in recession.

The attached story has the details, but it shows that Italy, Spain and Greece are in dire recessions, with output contracting and France just managed to maintain output. So what is the reason that Eurostat says the Eurozone isn't in recession? Well Germany grew strongly and overall Eurozone GDP rose when added together.

This means that recessions are now not only defined by arbitrary dates, but also arbitrary borders. It depends how you group countries together.

Of course the real point of interest is the effect of cutting government budget deficits on GDP. As Government spending is a component of AD changes in it have a multiplier effect. Add to that higher taxation and we see disposable income falling and so Consumption dragging AD down further.

Today the new French President, a man worryingly named after a sauce, will argue for more stimulus to boost short-run growth. But today the people of Italy, Spain and Greece, and I think France and Britain, might agree with him.

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